The Yield Wall and the Liquidity Cushion: Equities at a Macro Inflection Point
Executive Investment Thesis We assess equities as entering a late-cycle...
Macro risk vectors are in historical equilibrium. Elevated real policy rates are counterbalanced by orderly credit spreads and resilient corporate liquidity.
Executive Investment Thesis We assess equities as entering a late-cycle...
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook Our central assessment is that...
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Takeaway The latest five-day rolling sector...
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Takeaway Our analysis identifies a narrow,...
PCE vs CPI formula mechanics, Shelter/OER weights, medical coverage divergence, and Federal Reserve 2% target policy discounting.
Operating mechanics of the policy rate, administered rates corridor, and interbank money market plumbing.
2Y/10Y curve regimes, bull/bear steepening mechanics, recession signals, and term premium decomposition.
How Treasury yields, credit spreads, equity valuations, and FX combine into conditions driving GDP growth.
Bond market implied volatility, VIX divergence signals, primary dealer hedging constraints, and market stress.
Official CME clearing settlements vs session closes, volume-weighted pricing, and contract roll dynamics.