U.S. & GLOBAL MACRO COMMAND CENTER
Institutional monetary policy, Federal Reserve liquidity, M1/M2/M3 money supply, Treasury national debt, real interest rates, credit spreads, VIX, and recession risk intelligence.
PROPRIETARY RECESSION RISK MODEL
28.0% MODERATE
Calculated from Yield Spreads, Credit & Labor Trends
SCHEDULE: SUNDAY @ 5:00 PM EST
FED NET MARKET LIQUIDITY
EVERY THURSDAY @ 4:30 PM ET
$6,120.50B
Fed Assets - TGA - Reverse Repo
SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM ET • FEDERAL RESERVE H.4.1 BALANCE SHEET STATEMENT
MONEY MARKET FUND ASSETS
EVERY THURSDAY @ 4:30 PM ET
$6,480.20B
Retail: $2,540.00B • Inst: $3,940.20B
SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM ET • INVESTMENT COMPANY INSTITUTE (ICI) WEEKLY MONEY MARKET FUND STATISTICS
COMMERCIAL BANK DEPOSITS
EVERY FRIDAY @ 4:15 PM ET
$17,550.40B
Total Commercial Bank Depository Accounts
SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY FRIDAY AT 4:15 PM ET • FEDERAL RESERVE H.8 STATEMENT
TOTAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING
EVERY THU @ 4:30 PM EST
$39,797,152,899,275
Total Public Debt to the Exact Penny (FiscalData)
SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM EST • U.S. TREASURY FISCAL DATA API (DEBT TO THE PENNY)
MONEY SUPPLY METRICS (M1, M2, M3)
4TH TUE OF MONTH @ 1:00 PM ET
| M1 Money Supply (Currency & Demand Deposits) | $18,100.20B |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: 4TH TUESDAY OF EACH MONTH AT 1:00 PM ET • FEDERAL RESERVE H.6 MONTHLY STATEMENT (FRED: WM1NS) | |
| M2 Money Supply (M1 + Savings & Small CDs) | $21,050.80B |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: 4TH TUESDAY OF EACH MONTH AT 1:00 PM ET • FEDERAL RESERVE H.6 MONTHLY STATEMENT (FRED: WM2NS) | |
| Estimated Broad Money (M3 Equivalent) | $22,100.00B |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: 1ST WEEK OF EACH MONTH (APPROX 5TH DAY) AT 8:00 AM ET • OECD / FRED (MABMM301USM189S) | |
FED BALANCE SHEET & ESTIMATED LIQUIDITY PROXY
EVERY THU @ 4:30 PM EST
| Federal Reserve Total Assets (WALCL Balance Sheet) | $7,210.00B |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM ET • FEDERAL RESERVE H.4.1 BALANCE SHEET STATEMENT | |
| Treasury General Account (TGA Cash Balance) | $780.50B |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM ET • U.S. TREASURY & FEDERAL RESERVE (FRED: WTREGEN) | |
| Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements (ON RRP) | $310.20B |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY BUSINESS DAY (MON–FRI) AT 1:15 PM ET • NEW YORK FED MARKETS API | |
| Commercial Bank Reserve Balances with Fed | $3,250.00B |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM ET • FEDERAL RESERVE H.4.1 STATEMENT (FRED: WRESBAL) | |
| Effective Fed Funds Rate (EFFR) / SOFR Rate | 3.63% / 3.61% |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY BUSINESS DAY (MON–FRI) AT 8:00 AM ET • NEW YORK FED MARKETS API | |
| Probable Next Fed Rate Move (CME FedWatch Target) | 84.0% (25bps Cut) |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: LIVE 24/7 MARKET PROBABILITIES • CME FEDWATCH TOOL (CME GROUP) | |
U.S. TREASURY YIELD CURVE & INTEREST RATE SPREADS
EVERY THU @ 4:30 PM EST
SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM EST • U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY OFFICIAL XML FEED
1 Month
3.73%
3 Month
3.83%
6 Month
3.97%
2 Year
4.22%
5 Year
4.37%
10 Year
4.67%
30 Year
5.20%
| 10Y - 2Y Treasury Yield Spread (Inversion Benchmark) | +0.45% |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM EST • ST. LOUIS FED (FRED: T10Y2Y) | |
| 10Y - 3M Treasury Yield Spread (Fed Preferred Recession Indicator) | +0.84% |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM EST • FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD (FRED: T10Y3M) | |
★ KEY POLICY DIVERGENCE GAUGE
FEATURED SIGNAL
| 2Y - EFFR Spread (2Y UST Yield vs. Effective Fed Funds Rate) | +0.59% |
|
2Y UST Yield: 4.22%
−
EFFR Rate: 3.63%
=
Spread: +0.59%
|
|
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM EST • U.S. TREASURY & FED (2Y Yield minus EFFR) | |
REAL INTEREST RATES & INFLATION EXPECTATIONS (TIPS)
EVERY THU @ 4:30 PM EST
| 10-Year Real TIPS Treasury Yield (DFII10 Real Rate) | 2.15% |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM EST • U.S. TREASURY TIPS (FRED: DFII10) | |
| 5-Year Market Breakeven Inflation Rate (T5YIE) | 2.35% |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM EST • ST. LOUIS FED (FRED: T5YIE) | |
| 10-Year Market Breakeven Inflation Rate (T10YIE) | 2.40% |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM EST • ST. LOUIS FED (FRED: T10YIE) | |
| Federal Reserve Official Long-Term Inflation Target | 2.00% |
| BENCHMARK: Official Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Annual Inflation Target | |
INFLATION GAUGES & LABOR MARKET STATISTICS
EVERY THU @ 4:30 PM EST
| Truflation Real-Time Inflation Rate (YoY Daily Gauge) | 2.14% |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM EST • TRUFLATION API ENGINE | |
| Official Core PCE Price Index (YoY - Fed Benchmark) | 2.60% |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM EST • BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS (BEA) | |
| Headline CPI Inflation Rate (YoY) / Core CPI | 3.00% / 3.30% |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM EST • U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS (BLS API) | |
| Official Unemployment Rate | 4.10% |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM EST • BLS API | |
| Initial Jobless Claims (ICSA Weekly Labor Gauge) | 220K |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM EST • U.S. DEPT OF LABOR (FRED: ICSA) | |
CREDIT SPREADS, VOLATILITY & CONSUMER HEALTH
EVERY THU @ 4:30 PM EST
| ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Credit Spread | 3.25% |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM EST • ICE BOFA / FRED (BAMLH0A0HYM2) | |
| CBOE Volatility Index (VIX Equity Market Fear Gauge) | 15.20 |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM EST • CBOE / FRED (VIXCLS) | |
| Commercial Bank Credit Card Loan Delinquency Rate | 3.10% |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM EST • FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD G.19 STATEMENT (FRED: DRCCLACBS) | |
GDP GROWTH, CONSUMER & INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY
EVERY THU @ 4:30 PM EST
| Real GDP Annual Growth Rate (Annualized QoQ) | 2.80% |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: FINAL THURSDAY OF EACH QUARTER MONTH AT 8:30 AM ET • BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS (BEA: GDPC1) | |
| Advance Monthly Retail Sales | $705.00B |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: MID-MONTH (2ND TUESDAY OF MONTH) AT 8:30 AM ET • U.S. CENSUS BUREAU (FRED: RSAFS) | |
| Personal Savings Rate (% of Disposable Income) | 3.40% |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: LAST FRIDAY OF EACH MONTH AT 8:30 AM ET • BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS (BEA: PSAVERT) | |
| Industrial Production Index & Capacity Utilization | 102.5 / 78.80% |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: MID-MONTH (15TH OR NEAREST BUSINESS DAY) AT 9:15 AM ET • FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD (FRED: INDPRO / TCU) | |
U.S. GOVERNMENT BUDGET & DEBT SERVICE
EVERY THU @ 4:30 PM EST
| Total Public Debt Outstanding | $34,821,450,000,000 |
| Debt Held by the Public | $27,400,000,000,000 |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY BUSINESS DAY (MON–FRI) AT 3:00 PM ET • U.S. TREASURY FISCAL DATA API | |
| Average Interest Rate on National Debt | 3.32% |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: 1ST BUSINESS DAY OF EACH MONTH AT 3:00 PM ET • U.S. TREASURY FISCAL DATA API | |
| Monthly Federal Budget Deficit | -$165,000,000 |
| Monthly Federal Government Outlays / Spending | $540,000,000 |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: 8TH BUSINESS DAY OF EACH MONTH AT 2:00 PM ET • U.S. TREASURY MONTHLY STATEMENT (FRED: MTS) | |
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX & ADVANCED FED PLUMBING
EVERY THU @ 4:30 PM EST
| Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad (DTWEXBGS) | 128.50 |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY BUSINESS DAY (MON–FRI) AT 4:00 PM ET • FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD (FRED: DTWEXBGS) | |
| Commercial Paper Outstanding (Short-Term Liquidity) | $1,250.00B |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY WEDNESDAY AT 4:00 PM ET • FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD (FRED: COMPAPER) | |
| Foreign Official Custody Holdings of U.S. Treasuries | $2,950.00B |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM ET • FEDERAL RESERVE H.4.1 STATEMENT (FRED: FLEXSD) | |
| U.S. Monthly Trade Deficit (Goods & Services) | -$75,100,000 |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: 1ST THURSDAY OF EACH MONTH AT 8:30 AM ET • BEA & CENSUS BUREAU | |
COMMODITIES, HOUSING & FINANCIAL STRESS INDEXES
EVERY THU @ 4:30 PM EST
| WTI Crude Oil Spot Price / Gold Spot Price | $76.50 / $2,380.00 |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 4:30 PM EST SETTLEMENT • EIA / FRED (DCOILWTICO / GOLD) | |
| 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Benchmark | 6.78% |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 10:00 AM ET • FREDDIE MAC PRIMARY MORTGAGE MARKET SURVEY | |
| Housing Starts (Total New Privately Owned Units) | 1,350K |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: MID-MONTH (17TH OR NEAREST BUSINESS DAY) AT 8:30 AM ET • U.S. CENSUS BUREAU (FRED: HOUST) | |
| St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) | -0.45 |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY THURSDAY AT 1:30 PM ET • FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS | |
| Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) | -0.52 |
| SCHEDULE & SOURCE: EVERY WEDNESDAY AT 8:30 AM ET • FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO | |