FEAR (32)
CNN FEAR & GREED INDEX
REAL-TIME MARKET SENTIMENT CONTINUUM
32
▲
EXTREME FEAR
FEAR
NEUTRAL
GREED
EXTREME GREED
Prev. Close58
1 Wk Ago52
2 Wks Ago48
3 Wks Ago55
4 Wks Ago46
2 Mos Ago41
3 Mos Ago38
1 Yr Ago72
68.4% BULLISH
FIN-TWIT SOCIAL TEMPERATURE
FIN-TWIT HEAT:
MODERATE BULLISH TEMP
68.4%
FinTwit retail & institutional accounts lean moderately bullish ahead of FOMC policy decisions.
WEEKLY SURVEY
AAII RETAIL INVESTOR SENTIMENT SURVEY
Week Ended August 05, 2026
BULLISH37.0%
NEUTRAL25.0%
BEARISH38.0%
SPREAD-1.0%
Prior 4 Weeks Sentiment Breakdown:
Jul 29, 2026
Bull 31.0%
Neu 26.9%
Bear 42.1%
Spread -11.1%
Jul 22, 2026
Bull 29.6%
Neu 28.1%
Bear 42.3%
Spread -12.7%
Jul 15, 2026
Bull 31.8%
Neu 29.4%
Bear 38.8%
Spread -7.0%
Jul 08, 2026
Bull 33.5%
Neu 30.2%
Bear 36.3%
Spread -2.8%
Latest AAII Investor Survey (Week Ended August 05, 2026): Bullish sentiment measured 37.0% vs Bearish sentiment of 38.0%. Bull-Bear spread: -1.0%.
OFFICIAL SURVEYS
UMICH CONSUMER & NFIB BUSINESS SENTIMENT
UMich Overall66.4
UMich Expect68.8
UMich Current62.7
NFIB Index91.5
1-Yr Inflation2.9%
NFIB CapEx23.0%
University of Michigan consumer sentiment holds steady at 66.4 while small business optimism (NFIB) stands at 91.5.
MULTI-VENUE CONSENSUS FORECAST DASHBOARD
Real-time cross-exchange consensus probabilities aggregated across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold prediction markets.
| EVENT / CONTRACT PREDICTION | POLYMARKET | KALSHI | MANIFOLD | CONSENSUS ODDS | 24H TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve benchmark rate cut at September FOMC meeting?
Vol: $1,420,000
|
82.8% | 84.0% | 81.5% | 82.8% | ▲ +2.4% |
|
Federal Reserve
Fed funds target rate below 4.75% by December 2026?
Vol: $890,000
|
68.5% | 70.0% | 67.0% | 68.5% | ▲ +1.2% |
|
Inflation
U.S. Headline CPI YoY falls below 2.5% in Q3 2026?
Vol: $640,000
|
64.2% | 66.0% | 63.0% | 64.2% | ▼ -0.8% |
|
Inflation
Core PCE Price Index annual rate drops below 2.6%?
Vol: $510,000
|
58.7% | 60.0% | 57.5% | 58.7% | ▲ +0.5% |
|
Economy
U.S. official recession declared by NBER before end of 2026?
Vol: $2,150,000
|
19.8% | 18.5% | 21.0% | 19.8% | ▼ -1.5% |
|
Economy
U.S. Q3 2026 GDP Annualized Growth exceeds +2.2%?
Vol: $1,120,000
|
71.3% | 73.0% | 70.0% | 71.3% | ▲ +1.6% |
|
Markets & Crypto
S&P 500 reaches new all-time high above $5,600 before Q4 2026?
Vol: $3,400,000
|
76.4% | 78.0% | 75.0% | 76.4% | ▲ +3.1% |
|
Markets & Crypto
Bitcoin (BTC) breaks above $100,000 before December 2026?
Vol: $5,100,000
|
61.5% | 63.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | ▲ +1.9% |
|
AI & Tech
NVIDIA (NVDA) market capitalization exceeds $3.5 Trillion in 2026?
Vol: $1,850,000
|
72.0% | 74.0% | 70.5% | 72.0% | ▲ +2.8% |
|
AI & Tech
Leading US AI lab announces GPT-5 / Claude 4 class model in 2026?
Vol: $2,300,000
|
88.4% | 90.0% | 87.0% | 88.4% | ▲ +0.9% |
|
Corporate & Commodities
Brent Crude Oil price per barrel exceeds $90 in Q3 2026?
Vol: $920,000
|
31.4% | 33.0% | 30.0% | 31.4% | ▼ -1.2% |