10Y–2Y Treasury Yield Curve Spread & Inversion Tracker
Benchmark Constant Maturity Treasury 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield Differential, Historical Cycles & Recession Regimes (1990–2026)
Current 10Y–2Y Spread
+45 bps
Normal (Dis-Inverted)
10-Year Treasury Yield
4.67%
Long-Duration Benchmark
2-Year Treasury Yield
4.22%
Monetary Policy Proxy
2023 Cycle Trough
-108 bps
Deepest Since 1981
The benchmark 10Y minus 2Y Treasury spread trades at +45 bps (10Y at 4.67%, 2Y at 4.22%), marking a full transition out of the historic 2022–2024 inversion that touched -108 bps. In macroeconomic history, the dis-inversion phase is often when economic headwinds materialize, as banks adjust commercial lending standards to positive term premium environments.
Read Master Concept Guide: Yield Curve Recession Forecasting: 10Y-2Y vs. 10Y-3M Mechanics →Historical Macro Cycle Benchmarks & Inflection Points
Pre-rendered empirical time-series data table for search engine verification and cycle benchmarking.
| Monetary Cycle Date | 10Y Treasury | 2Y Treasury | Spread (10Y - 2Y) | Curve Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1990 (Pre-Recession) | 8.52% | 8.16% | +36 bps | Late Cycle Flat |
| April 2000 (Inversion Peak) | 5.85% | 6.37% | -52 bps | Inverted / Recession Warning |
| July 2003 (Post-Easing Steepener) | 3.98% | 1.34% | +264 bps | Bull Steepener Expansion |
| February 2007 (Pre-GFC Inversion) | 4.72% | 4.86% | -14 bps | Inverted / Financial Stress |
| February 2010 (Post-Crisis Peak) | 3.69% | 0.81% | +288 bps | Record Steepness |
| March 2023 (SVB Peak Inversion) | 3.66% | 4.74% | -108 bps | Deepest Inversion in 40 Yrs |
| September 2026 (Current Live) | 4.67% | 4.22% | +45 bps | Dis-Inverted / Steepening |