Gold, Real Yields & Central Bank De-Dollarization Dynamics
Why gold historically exhibited a −0.85 correlation with TIPS real yields, how sovereign reserve de-dollarization broke the relationship, and central bank buying models.
12 Real Asset Primers
Showing 12 Primers
Commodities & Real Assets: Energy, Industrial Metals & Supercycles
Real asset economics: gold vs. real yields, copper-to-gold growth ratios, refinery 3:2:1 crack spreads, futures curve term structure, power spark spreads, LNG arbitrage, and nuclear fuel cycles.
Refinery Crack Spreads (3:2:1) as High-Frequency Macro Barometers
Calculating the 3:2:1 refinery crack spread, understanding physical processing margins, and reading crack spreads as leading indicators of industrial transport and consumer demand.
The Copper / Gold Ratio as a Real-Time Global Growth & Real Yield Barometer
Why the ratio of industrial copper to monetary gold accurately tracks 10-year nominal Treasury yields, global manufacturing PMIs, and macroeconomic cycle transitions.
Commodity Cycles & Structural Supercycles Explained
Understanding multi-decade commodity supercycles, CapEx underinvestment cycles, and late-stage business cycle performance.
CME Futures Settlement, Fair Value, & Overnight Basis: Complete Institutional Guide
Definitive institutional guide to CME Futures settlement calculations, daily closing anchors, overnight fair value spreads, and trading session hours for ES, NQ, Gold, and Oil.
Futures Basis: Spot vs. Futures Pricing & Arbitrage
Cost of carry models, convenience yields, and risk-free institutional cash-and-carry arbitrage mechanics.
Contango vs. Backwardation in Derivatives Markets
Understanding positive vs. negative roll yields, physical inventory scarcity, and commodity ETF structural drag.
Reading Futures Curves & Forward Term Structures
How to analyze upward sloping, inverted backwardation, and seasonal term structure curves across commodities and rates.
The Mechanics of 3:2:1 Crack Spreads & Refinery Processing Economics
A quantitative primer on crude distillation cuts, catalytic cracking yield dynamics, Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), and refinery EBITDA margins.
Power Market Microstructure: Spark Spreads, Heat Rates & Merit-Order Dispatch
An institutional analysis of electricity pricing, thermal conversion heat rates, Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP), and the clean spark spread.
Global LNG Arbitrage: Liquefaction Tolling, Shipping Netbacks & Regional Basis Pricing
Quantitative analysis of the US Gulf Coast Henry Hub vs. European TTF and Asian JKM inter-basin spread, boil-off gas economics, and liquefaction fees.
The Uranium Fuel Cycle & Nuclear Utility Contracting Economics
An institutional analysis of yellowcake mining, UF6 conversion, SWU enrichment, uncommitted utility demand, and long-term contracting cycles.