Supercore Inflation: Services Excluding Housing & Wage Pressures
Understanding Supercore PCE inflation: why the Federal Reserve strips shelter and energy, labor cost pass-through, and structural wage persistence.
9 Inflation & Labor Primers
Showing 9 Primers
Inflation & Labor: Price Dynamics, Real Wages & Employment Slack
Analytical foundations of PCE versus CPI divergence, supercore inflation dynamics, real wage growth, Beveridge curve dynamics, and the Sahm Rule recession indicator.
PCE vs. CPI Inflation: Why the Federal Reserve Targets Core PCE Over Headline CPI
In-depth macroeconomic guide comparing the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index against the Consumer Price Index (CPI), formula differences, and Fed policy targeting.
Money Supply Dynamics: M1, M2 & The Velocity of Money
How commercial banks create money through fractional lending, M2 expansion vs. contraction, and the Equation of Exchange ($MV=PY$).
The Sector Rotation Model: Navigating Economic Cycles with Equity Allocation
Institutional guide to the economic business cycle and equity sector rotation framework: early, mid, late cycle, and recessionary asset allocation strategies.
Leading, Coincident & Lagging Economic Indicators Explained
Comprehensive classification of LEIs, coincident NBER series, and lagging employment data for cycle forecasting.
ISM PMI: Reading the Business Cycle Through Purchasing Managers
How to interpret Manufacturing & Services PMIs, New Orders-to-Inventory spreads, and Prices Paid inflation indicators.
The Sahm Rule: A Real-Time Quantitative Recession Trigger
Mathematical definition, 0.50% threshold mechanics, historical accuracy, and labor market feedback loop dynamics.
The Beveridge Curve: Labor Demand, Vacancies & Economic Slack
Understanding the vacancy-to-unemployment relationship, soft landing mechanics, and matching efficiency shifts.
The Phillips Curve: Unemployment vs. Inflation & NAIRU
The short-run vs. long-run Phillips curve, unanchored inflation expectations, NAIRU modeling, and modern structural shifts.