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Macroeconomic Intelligence & Central Bank Policy

Institutional analysis of Federal Reserve target rate odds, inflation dynamics, Treasury yield curves, and global currency liquidity.

Archived Reports (59)
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY September 10, 2026

Edge Is Surviving What Everyone Else Cannot

The Investment Problem Is Not Finding the Perfect Forecast As a macro strategist, I view investing first as a problem of survival. The central challenge is not identifying the...

EDITORIAL September 10, 2026

Investing Is Not a Contest of Prediction

The central idea behind this collection is simple: successful investing is less about predicting what will happen next and more about building a financial system that can prosper...

EDITORIAL September 10, 2026

My CPI and Market Outlook

I am going into tomorrow's CPI report with a neutral-to-slightly-bearish bias on equities, but not with a crash thesis . My base case is that August CPI comes in very close to...

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY August 30, 2026

24Hr Newswire Intelligence - 2026 August 30

Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook A simultaneous energy shock and monetary-policy repricing dominated the past 24 hours following reported military strikes against...

EDITORIAL August 29, 2026

Market Outlook for 2026 August 29

The Market After Jackson Hole: Why the Next Three Weeks Could Get Volatile Our 1–3 Week U.S. Stock Market Outlook The U.S. equity market enters September in an unusual position....

EDITORIAL August 22, 2026

(Editorial) - 2026 August 22

The Complex Paradox of the Monetary Rubber Band Why the relationship between money, credit, interest rates and productive capacity matters more than any single inflation number...

EDITORIAL August 22, 2026

- Education Perspective - 2026 August 2022

The Monetary Rubber Band Why the relationship between money, credit, interest rates and productive capacity matters more than any single inflation number There is a popular way of...

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY August 11, 2026

Pre CPI Executive Summary - 2026 August 11

Executive Summary — CPI Setup for August 11, 2026 My overall read: the market is entering tomorrow's CPI report with a late-cycle, inflation-sensitive positioning , but the...

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY July 16, 2026

Global Macro Intelligence - 2026 July 16

Global Macroeconomic Perspective – July 16, 2026 The global economy continues to exhibit resilience, although growth remains uneven across major regions. Most developed economies...