One of the most useful ways to think about economic policy is to step away from politics and ask a simpler question: What incentives does a policy create, and what happens when people respond to...
There is a recurring mistake we make when thinking about economics: we look at the outcome and immediately ask, “Who should fix this?” Prices are too high. A company is failing. Inflation is rising....
There is a powerful economic question buried beneath many of the political arguments dominating America today: How do we give ordinary people enough economic security that they can stop living...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 24-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook The dominant message from the past 24 hours is the interaction of three macroeconomic shocks: an increasingly entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation in the...
The Market After Jackson Hole: Why the Next Three Weeks Could Get Volatile Our 1–3 Week U.S. Stock Market Outlook The U.S. equity market enters September in an unusual position. On the surface, the...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 24-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook The dominant message from the past 24 hours is the interaction of three macroeconomic shocks: an increasingly entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation in the...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 24-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook The dominant message from the past 24 hours is the interaction of three macroeconomic shocks: an increasingly entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation in the...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 24-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook The dominant message from the past 24 hours is the interaction of three macroeconomic shocks: an increasingly entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation in the...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 24-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook The dominant message from the past 24 hours is the interaction of three macroeconomic shocks: an increasingly entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation in the...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 24-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook The dominant message from the past 24 hours is the interaction of three macroeconomic shocks: an increasingly entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation in the...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis The dominant message from the past 24 hours is the interaction of three shocks: an increasingly entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation, renewed tariff escalation, and a global...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 1–2 Week Tactical Market Forecast & Strategic Asset Allocation Framework.
Core Investment Thesis Cross-sectional intelligence from 1,670+ weekend newswire items confirms the global economy is operating in an asynchronous, supply-constrained regime. Global monetary and...
Executive Summary My overall assessment: Moderately bullish for risk assets over the next 1–3 months, but increasingly vulnerable to a valuation-driven pullback. The July CPI report was essentially...
Executive Summary — U.S. Sector Performance & Macroeconomic Outlook Market Regime: Moderately Bullish / Risk-On, With Increasingly Selective Leadership The sector performance over the past five...
Why the U.S. must run perpetual trade deficits to supply global reserve currency liquidity, and the capital account surplus mirror.
How the statutory debt ceiling creates massive artificial swings in commercial bank reserves, TGA cash balances, and Treasury bill pricing.
How Fed operational losses on IORB and reverse repo create deferred assets, eliminate remittances to the U.S. Treasury, and expand headline federal borrowing.
Quarterly Refunding Announcements (QRA), Treasury bill vs. coupon supply mix, private capital crowding out, and debt dynamics.
Measuring whether government fiscal policy is actively stimulating or draining GDP, debt dynamics under the r − g equation, and the primary deficit boundary.
How fiscal deficits, Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements (QRA), duration supply, and the ACM term premium dictate long-end yields and equity discount rates.
How U.S. Treasury cash balances at the Federal Reserve drain or inject liquidity into the commercial banking system.
How the U.S. Treasury conducts regular debt buybacks to absorb off-the-run, illiquid coupon securities and smooth cash management swings.