One of the most useful ways to think about economic policy is to step away from politics and ask a simpler question: What incentives does a policy create, and what happens when people respond to...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 24-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook The dominant message from the past 24 hours is the interaction of three macroeconomic shocks: an increasingly entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation in the...
Financial markets are often described as machines for processing information. New economic data arrive, companies report earnings, governments announce policies, central banks change interest rates,...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 24-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook The dominant message from the past 24 hours is the interaction of three macroeconomic shocks: an increasingly entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation in the...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 24-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook The dominant message from the past 24 hours is the interaction of three macroeconomic shocks: an increasingly entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation in the...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 24-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook The dominant message from the past 24 hours is the interaction of three macroeconomic shocks: an increasingly entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation in the...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 24-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook The dominant message from the past 24 hours is the interaction of three macroeconomic shocks: an increasingly entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation in the...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 24-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook The dominant message from the past 24 hours is the interaction of three macroeconomic shocks: an increasingly entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation in the...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 24-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook The dominant message from the past 24 hours is the interaction of three macroeconomic shocks: an increasingly entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation in the...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 24-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook The dominant message from the past 24 hours is the interaction of three macroeconomic shocks: an increasingly entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation in the...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 24-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook The dominant message from the past 24 hours is the interaction of three macroeconomic shocks: an increasingly entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation in the...
The Complex Paradox of the Monetary Rubber Band Why the relationship between money, credit, interest rates and productive capacity matters more than any single inflation number There is a popular way...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 24-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook The dominant message from the past 24 hours is the interaction of three macroeconomic shocks: an increasingly entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation in the...
The Monetary Rubber Band Why the relationship between money, credit, interest rates and productive capacity matters more than any single inflation number There is a popular way of thinking about the...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 24-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Regime Outlook The dominant message from the past 24 hours is the interaction of three macroeconomic shocks: an increasingly entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation in the...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 24-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Takeaway The global macroeconomic landscape over the past 24 hours has been sharply defined by geopolitical re-escalation across Middle Eastern maritime corridors and a...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 48-Hour Global News Wire Synthesis & Cross-Asset Market Strategy.
Core Investment Thesis & Macro Takeaway The dominant message from the past 48 hours is a widening conflict between disinflationary economic forces and renewed geopolitical inflation risk. The...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 1–2 Week Tactical Market Forecast & Strategic Asset Allocation Framework.
Core Investment Thesis Cross-sectional intelligence from 1,670+ weekend newswire items confirms the global economy is operating in an asynchronous, supply-constrained regime. Global monetary and...
Executive Macroeconomic Briefing, 1-2 Week Tactical Market Forecast & Strategic Asset Allocation Framework.
Core Investment Thesis The global macroeconomic regime is transitioning from an orderly 'soft landing' into an asynchronous, supply-constrained late-cycle expansion. Four distinct macro forces are...
Executive Summary — CPI Setup for August 11, 2026 My overall read: the market is entering tomorrow's CPI report with a late-cycle, inflation-sensitive positioning , but the underlying equity tape is...
Executive Summary: Global Macroeconomic & Financial Outlook Based on the past ~12 hours of global financial news flow Executive Assessment The global economy continues to exhibit moderate...
Asia Weekend Macroeconomic Executive Summary Based solely on the Asian news headlines from the past ~48 hours Executive Summary The dominant macroeconomic message from Asia this weekend is that the...
Global Macroeconomic Perspective – July 16, 2026 The global economy continues to exhibit resilience, although growth remains uneven across major regions. Most developed economies are transitioning...
Understanding the Cross-Currency Basis: why Covered Interest Parity (CIP) fails, the mechanics of FX swap borrowing, and detecting global offshore dollar shortages.
Why the U.S. must run perpetual trade deficits to supply global reserve currency liquidity, and the capital account surplus mirror.
A deep structural guide to the SOMA portfolio, bank reserves, TGA, ON RRP, and quantitative net liquidity models.
How Fed operational losses on IORB and reverse repo create deferred assets, eliminate remittances to the U.S. Treasury, and expand headline federal borrowing.
How Treasury yields, credit spreads, equity valuations, and the dollar combine into financial conditions that drive economic growth.
How foreign central banks manage U.S. debt holdings, reading the monthly TIC capital flow reports, and monitoring weekly Foreign Custody data at the NY Fed.
How the offshore Eurodollar market, cross-currency basis swap spreads, and Fed central bank swap lines drive global liquidity.
How Bank of Japan Yield Curve Control (YCC) exit and rising JGB yields impact the multi-trillion-dollar Japanese capital repatriation from US Treasuries and European bonds.
How domestic Federal Reserve monetary policy transmits through offshore dollar funding markets, FX swaps, cross-currency basis spreads, and emerging market trade velocity.
How commercial banks create money through fractional lending, M2 expansion vs. contraction, and the Equation of Exchange ($MV=PY$).
Comprehensive institutional guide to QE and QT, asset purchase programs, balance sheet runoff caps, and bank reserve liquidity impacts.
How TIPS, breakeven inflation rates, and real interest rates dictate discount rates, equity multiples, and gold valuations.
Basket weighting, Stephen Jen
How zero-interest rate yen funding trades function, what triggers catastrophic unwinds, and the global volatility feedback loop.