ICE BofA MOVE Bond Volatility vs. CBOE VIX Equity Volatility Index
Fixed Income Option-Implied Volatility vs. Equity Volatility Surface, Systematic Risk Parity De-Leveraging, and Cross-Asset Liquidity Shocks (1998–2026)
The ICE BofA MOVE Index stands at 98.5 pts while the CBOE VIX trades at 15.80 pts, yielding a MOVE/VIX ratio of 6.23x. During acute macroeconomic stress—such as the March 2023 SVB banking crisis—MOVE surged to nearly 200 pts while equity VIX remained remarkably subdued near 25 pts, signaling that the primary locus of systemic vulnerability was interest rate duration rather than corporate earnings risk.
Read Master Reference Guide: Volatility Surfaces, Variance Risk Premia & Systematic Tail Risk →Historical Macro Cycle Benchmarks & Inflection Points
Pre-rendered empirical time-series data table for search engine verification and cycle benchmarking.
| Macro Cycle Phase | ICE BofA MOVE Index | CBOE VIX Index | Cross-Asset Vol Shock Event | De-Leveraging Transmission |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 1998 (LTCM Hedge Fund Collapse) | 164.5 | 44.20 | 3.72x | Bond Basis Arbitrage Liquidation |
| October 2008 (Lehman GFC Panic) | 264.0 | 80.10 | 3.30x | Systemic Capital Markets Freezout |
| June 2013 (Bernanke Taper Tantrum) | 118.5 | 17.50 | 6.77x | Bond Yield Spike Ahead of Equity Selloff |
| March 2020 (Global COVID Dash for Cash) | 163.5 | 82.70 | 1.98x | Synchronized Cross-Asset Margin Call |
| October 2022 (Aggressive 75 bps Fed Hikes) | 160.5 | 33.50 | 4.79x | Duration Risk Repricing & Gilt Crisis |
| March 2023 (SVB Regional Banking Run) | 198.7 | 26.50 | 7.50x | Acute Treasury Volatility / Moderate Equity Vol |
| August 2024 (Yen Carry Unwind Panic) | 130.0 | 38.60 | 3.37x | Currency Carry De-Leveraging Spike |
| September 2026 (Current Baseline) | 98.5 | 15.80 | 6.23x | Orderly Cross-Asset Volatility Equilibrium |
1. Fixed Income Volatility vs. Equity Volatility
The ICE BofA MOVE Index measures normalized implied volatility on 1-month over-the-counter options on 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury futures. The CBOE VIX measures 30-day implied volatility on S&P 500 index options. Because fixed income is the bedrock asset class upon which all global equity discount rates are established, violent dislocations in sovereign bond yields (MOVE > 140) inevitably force multi-asset risk parity funds and algorithmic volatility-targeting funds to mechanically dump equities to meet margin and risk limits.
2. The March 2023 SVB Divergence
In March 2023, following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the MOVE index exploded to 198.7—its highest level since the 2008 Great Financial Crisis—while the VIX barely breached 26. This stark divergence signaled that equity investors viewed the regional banking panic as a localized duration mismatch that would force the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes, benefiting mega-cap technology equities even as Treasury markets experienced extreme volatility.