Model #38 • Desk 7: Digital Assets & Crypto Derivatives

DeFi Lending Money Market & Liquidation Cascade Simulator

An institutional collateralized credit underwriter for decentralized money markets (Aave v3, Morpho Blue, Compound). Simulate collateral Health Factors ($HF$), two-slope kinked utilization interest rate jumps, liquidator bonus arbitrage, close factors, and protocol bad debt insolvency cascades during price shocks.

Stress Scenarios:
Borrower Position Parameters POSITION SIZING
$2,450.00
Baseline price of primary collateral (WETH / wstETH).
100.00 ETH
Gross pledged collateral quantity in the smart contract.
$160,000
Current principal loan liability (USDC / USDT stablecoins).
85.0%
Max loan-to-value ratio before liquidation is triggered (Aave ETH: 83-86%).
5.0%
Discount given to liquidator seized collateral (standard is 5% to 8%).
Pool Interest Rate Mechanics
78.0%
Ratio of total borrowed funds to total deposited cash in pool.
80.0%
Inflection point where Slope 2 rate multiplier activates.
60.0%
Steep marginal rate spike when utilization exceeds the optimal kink.
0.0%
Stress-test price movement to witness Health Factor decay and liquidation.
Position Health & Solvency HUD RISK RUNTIME
Liquidation Trigger Price $1,882.35 -23.17% Price Buffer
Protocol Bad Debt Run $0.00 Full Collateral Coverage

Position Balance Sheet & Liquidation Execution Breakdown

Position Metric Base Metric Under Shock State Status / Covenant
Effective Collateral Spot Price $2,450.00 $2,450.00 0.0% Shock
Gross Collateral Market Value $245,000 $245,000 100.00 ETH Pledged
Discounted Liquidation Value (\(LT \cdot P\)) $208,250 $208,250 85.0% Threshold
Total Outstanding Borrowed Debt $160,000 $160,000 Principal USDC
Position Health Factor 1.30 1.30 SOLVENT
Liquidator Seizure Call (50% Close Factor) $80,000 Repaid 34.29 ETH Seized
Liquidator Gross Arbitrage Profit (5% Bonus) +$4,000 Instant Flash Loan DEX Arb
Residual Borrower Equity After Liquidation $85,000 $85,000 0.0% Loss

Stress Matrix: Collateral Price Shock vs. Pool Utilization (HF & Borrow APR)

Quantitative Formulation: Health Factor & Kinked Rate Mechanics

In overcollateralized lending protocols like Aave v3, loan solvency is continuously verified on-chain via decentralized price oracles (Chainlink). When the value of pledged collateral drops relative to debt, liquidation bots monitor the Health Factor threshold.

$$HF = \frac{\sum (C_i \cdot P_i \cdot LT_i)}{D_{\text{total}}} \quad \Longleftrightarrow \quad P_{\text{liquidation}} = \frac{D_{\text{total}}}{C \cdot LT}$$

Where \(C\) is collateral units, \(P\) is spot price, \(LT\) is the asset liquidation threshold (e.g. 0.85), and \(D_{\text{total}}\) is aggregate debt. If \(HF < 1.0\), liquidators execute liquidation calls up to the Close Factor (typically 50%), receiving collateral discounted by the Liquidation Bonus \(LB\).

$$R_{\text{borrow}}(U) = \begin{cases} R_0 + \frac{U}{U_{\text{opt}}} R_1 & U \le U_{\text{opt}} \\[6pt] R_0 + R_1 + \frac{U - U_{\text{opt}}}{1 - U_{\text{opt}}} R_2 & U > U_{\text{opt}} \end{cases}$$

When market runs occur and depositors withdraw capital, pool utilization \(U = \text{Borrows} / \text{Deposits}\) exceeds \(U_{\text{opt}}\). The steep Slope 2 rate \(R_2\) causes borrow APRs to surge exponentially, penalizing leveraged looping and restoring pool liquidity.