Model #41 • Desk 7: Digital Assets & Crypto Derivatives

Bitcoin Lightning Network Payment Channel & Routing Liquidity Simulator

A deterministic Layer-2 payment channel simulator and multihop graph routing engine. Model 2-of-2 multisig funding balances, directional local vs. remote liquidity exhaustion, multihop Hash Time-Locked Contract (HTLC) fee accrual, Submarine Swap rebalancing economics (Loop In / Loop Out), and unilateral force-close CSV penalty timelocks.

Channel Presets:
Payment Channel Liquidity Distribution (2-of-2 Multisig UTXO) 5,000,000 Sats Total
Local 50%
Remote 50%
• Local Outbound Balance: 2,500,000 Sats ($1,625) • Remote Inbound Balance: 2,500,000 Sats ($1,625)
Channel Parameters LIGHTNING L2
$65,000
Current institutional spot benchmark price.
5,000,000 Sats
Total locked 2-of-2 multisig funding transaction size.
50.0%
Outbound sending liquidity vs inbound receiving liquidity.
HTLC Routing & Forwarding Fees
1 Sat
Fixed fee charged per successfully routed HTLC payment hop.
350 PPM (0.035%)
Parts Per Million charged on forwarded payment volume (1k PPM = 0.1%).
45 Payments / Day
Number of HTLC payments routed through this channel daily.
250,000 Sats
Median satoshi size per forwarded Lightning payment invoice.
L1 On-Chain Settlement Friction
35 Sat/vB
Base chain mining fee required for channel open/close & swaps.
Channel Performance & Routing P&L HUD ROUTING YIELD
Daily Routing Income +$0.52 / day +796 Sats / Day
Force-Close L1 Penalty Cost $7.05 10,850 Sats (310 vB @ 35 Sat/vB)

HTLC Forwarding Economics & Channel Balance Analysis

Channel Metric Satoshi Amount USD Equivalent Channel Share
Local Outbound Sending Capacity 2,500,000 Sats $1,625.00 50.0%
Remote Inbound Receiving Capacity 2,500,000 Sats $1,625.00 50.0%
Single Forward Routing Fee Earned 88.5 Sats $0.0575 1 Sat Base + 350 PPM
Gross Daily Routing Volume Forwarded 11,250,000 Sats $7,312.50 2.25x Channel Turnover
Annual Gross Forwarding Fees Earned 290,449 Sats +$188.79 5.81% APR
Submarine Loop Rebalance (500k Sats) -19,105 Sats -$12.42 Loop Out to Cold UTXO
Unilateral Force-Close Breakeven Run 10,850 Sats $7.05 144 Blocks CSV Timelock

Routing Sensitivity: PPM Rate vs. Daily Forwarding Volume

Quantitative Formulation: Lightning Network Graph Routing & Channel Physics

The Bitcoin Lightning Network functions as a directed graph of bidirectional payment channels anchored to Bitcoin Layer-1 via 2-of-2 multisignature UTXOs. Channel capacity is strictly conserved: payments do not create new satoshis, but shift ownership between local and remote commitment balances.

$$\text{Routing Fee} = \text{Base Fee} + \left(\frac{\text{PPM}}{1,000,000} \times \text{Forwarded Amount}\right)$$

Where \(\text{PPM}\) represents Parts Per Million (e.g. \(500\text{ PPM} = 0.05\%\)). Routing nodes maximize yield by operating at high velocity and setting fees dynamically to balance inbound and outbound channels.

$$\text{Submarine Swap Cost} = (S_{\text{swap}} \cdot f_{\text{provider}}) + (\text{TxSize}_{\text{vB}} \cdot \text{FeeRate}_{\text{sat/vB}})$$

When a channel becomes outbound-depleted (\(\text{Local} \approx 0\)), the node can no longer route payments. Node operators execute Submarine Swaps (Loop Out) to atomically exchange off-chain channel liquidity for on-chain UTXO cold storage, incurring base-chain sat/vB fees.

$$\text{Breach Penalty: } \Delta t = 144 \text{ Blocks} \quad \Longleftrightarrow \quad \text{Revocation Key Punishes Fraud}$$

If a peer attempts to broadcast an outdated commitment state, the node operator uses the revocation secret within the CheckSequenceVerify (CSV) timelock window to seize 100% of the channel's funds as a punitive fraud remedy.